This past weekend seemed a perfect time to catch up on some labor market reading.
First topic: the real unemployment in the U.S. This article does a great job of explaining the difference between the monthly numbers released by the BLS, U3, and the more accurate measure of U6, which includes those whose unemployment benefits have run out, or who are too discouraged to look for jobs. After reading their estimate on actual unemployment, anyone would be discouraged.
Next was an article in Crain’s Chicago Business regarding staff shortages in Chicago restaurants. Many factors contribute to this, including the current, enhanced unemployment benefits. In addition, until fully vaccinated, some are very reluctant to come back to the workplace, especially one that demands constant interaction with the unmasked public.
Finally, the most recent Economist issue featured a special report about the future of work. These articles point out some bright spots, including how quickly employment rebounded despite dire predictions, to how many jobs were NOT automated during the pandemic. The newspaper’s overall take is this: “Today, as the economy emerges from the pandemic, a reversal of the primacy of capital over labour beckons – and it will come sooner than you think.”
So, the only conclusion for this firm? We will be spending much more time pouring over even more jobs data to make sense of how the labor markets are affecting our clients.