And then some

Sometimes you read that about relationships. Right now it applies to the relationship all of us have with the economy.

This headline from The Washington Post seemed to sum it up: “Pick your economy: Booming labor market or fizzling growth”

Yes

It’s hard to wrap your head around economic conditions that are so seldom seen in tandem.

The backdrop for the recent wage increases is very complicated, which is frustrating because everyone would like a very simple answer, and even easier solutions.

A recent paper from The Hamilton Project examines where all the workers have gone.  In the most simplistic of summaries:

• • The U.S. Labor Force is down between 3 to 3.5 million people from what was expected
• • Over 250,000 pandemic-related deaths were those aged between 18 and 64
• • Government policies have limited immigration
• • The child-care crisis worsened during Covid and has diminished women’s labor force participation

Before panic sets in about a recession, perhaps look for opportunity?  If other companies are laying off, it could be for a host of reasons that has nothing to do with your organization.  External economic pressures can expose internal flaws in firms.  Maybe they’ve just laid off someone with that specific skill set that you haven’t been able to find? 

Remember, there are still approximately two job openings for every available person, which gives people the confidence to leave jobs.  As the Atlanta Fed’s chart shows us monthly, the job switchers make more than the job stayers.