We’ve Seen This Show Before

We’ve Seen This Show Before

Lots of the country has been suffering from blistering heat.

Back in the days before most homes had air conditioning there was one really good way to escape the heat.

The movies.

If you weren’t around in 1947, you, too, may have missed “The Best Years of our Lives” which won multiple Oscars that year, including Best Picture and Best Director for William Wyler.  The story begins with the unceremonious way in which three returning WWII veterans must find their way back to their shared hometown, bonding in the process.  As the story unfolds, the viewer realizes that pre-war life didn’t necessarily dictate war-time rank, and that being a hero in one uniform, might not translate stateside. After watching our essential workers, who were called heroes at the height of the pandemic, it was uncanny to watch a wartime hero strive to earn a living wage once the conflict was over.

While there seems to be no excuse for NOT having seen this movie before, watching it now, as the U.S. is emerging from our battle with Covid, seems eerily fitting.

We’ve all been telling ourselves that never before have we had to deal with such a crazy labor market.  That people have never had to readjust after such a life and death struggle; so many have lost loved ones.  What about those that might never be 100% healthy again? How does our society and business world work around that? What about folks that have skills that are obsolete? How are workers supposed to retrain and reskill yet again? 

Whether you are trying to escape the heat, sit out a rainy weekend, or finally understand why everyone raves about William Wyler and his films, “The Best Years of our Lives” will knock your socks off. 

The U.S. has seen this show before, and after watching this movie, you will feel the resolve that we can get through this again, despite all of our collective wounds.

Sea Legs

Sea Legs

We received an email from a friend sending her regrets for an event. She said: “still trying to get my sea legs” regarding the return to mostly normal in this mostly post-Covid world.

Who isn’t?

It’s as if we have all been on various desert islands, and now ships are arriving to take us back to our previous lives. Or so we thought.  But some shipping lanes aren’t quite open, and others are overcrowded. 

It is definitely NOT smooth sailing, and it is very hard to find your footing.

The seas roil as nearly all of us are entering the same markets at the same time causing quite a wake in the process.  As a result of rushing to so many of the same places at once, it looks as though the water levels are rising around certain islands containing cars, lumber, housing, while some of the potential labor seems trapped on other islands.  The port masters keep hoping some sort of craft will be able to ferry workers to the appropriate islands, but here’s the rub:  everyone keeps using old charts of obsolete shipping lanes.  Assumptions are being made that everyone wants to return to where they were in February of 2020. 

This past week a few articles emerged with insights that defied all the economists: multiple months on a desert island make you re-evaluate your life.  Sometimes you find yourself. Other times, you don’t want to be found.  Sometimes you’ve thrown away the map determined to chart a new course.  Other times you’ve taught yourself so many new skills, you want to get paid for those skills. And of course, there is the issue of the “real clothes” required when returning to civilization.

The real lesson that may emerge is that man may be a more rational actor than all the economic texts taught us.  He may have found the meaning of his particular life and he is not willing to go back to the one he had before the Covid Tsunami.

 

Reallocation & Retraining

Reallocation & Retraining

Despite the headache caused by all of the labor market reading done for our last post, we’ve persevered.  

Some Chicago economists have had their thinking caps on, and their musings are worth sharing. They are asking the right questions as we contemplate labor markets and human capital post-pandemic.  

The Chicago Fed’s April paper focused on this:  Why didn’t more people from affected industries move over to industries that were NOT affected by the pandemic? “One sign that Covid might have increased the need for labor reallocation is the fact that even while unemployment rose substantially, firms reported an increase in job openings, the opposite of what normally happens in a recession.”

That article raised a nagging question:  Do workers lack the ability to retrain? The resources? Or the incentives?

One of Chicago’s most wry economists, Carl Tannenbaum, addresses the risks if people do NOT retrain. Solving these problems will not be easy, but he rightly points out, failing to address them will lead to even larger problems along geo-political lines. His piece’s topic sentence sums it up:  “Renewing human capital is as important as renewing physical capital.”

Solutions depend on cooperation and innovation. Education needs to orient to life-long upskilling, supporting a different concept of education before 18 and after 18, with government support. Companies must put their money where their mouth was when they signed the Business Roundtable document in 2019. If they create that ecosystem, they will retain workers for far longer—hiring based on competencies for life-long learning—and partnering with employees committed to constant up-skilling.

So many numbers, so little time

So many numbers, so little time

This past weekend seemed a perfect time to catch up on some labor market reading.  

First topic: the real unemployment in the U.S. This article does a great job of explaining the difference between the monthly numbers released by the BLS, U3, and the more accurate measure of U6, which includes those whose unemployment benefits have run out, or who are too discouraged to look for jobs. After reading their estimate on actual unemployment, anyone would be discouraged. 

Next was an article in Crain’s Chicago Business regarding staff shortages in Chicago restaurants. Many factors contribute to this, including the current, enhanced unemployment benefits. In addition, until fully vaccinated, some are very reluctant to come back to the workplace, especially one that demands constant interaction with the unmasked public.  

Finally, the most recent Economist issue featured a special report about the future of work.  These articles point out some bright spots, including how quickly employment rebounded despite dire predictions, to how many jobs were NOT automated during the pandemic. The newspaper’s overall take is this: “Today, as the economy emerges from the pandemic, a reversal of the primacy of capital over labour beckons – and it will come sooner than you think.” 

So, the only conclusion for this firm? We will be spending much more time pouring over even more jobs data to make sense of how the labor markets are affecting our clients.